Odds Changes

Odds Changes happen constantly in the Sportsbook both in Pre-Match and Live Betting and we’ll take a close look into why these changes happen.

Depending on the event the opening odds for an event go up on a Sportsbook as early as possible (within reason) and usually on a Monday, most major football leagues will have odds available for the coming weekend fixtures. Sportsbooks will be reluctant to lay very large bets at this stage as the market wouldn’t have ‘settled’ by this time and some Sportsbooks will have lower bet acceptance thresholds limits set in place which will gradually rise until the day of kick off when maximum bets can be placed.

Odds scraping

Some Sportsbooks will use 3rd party software to manage odds and this technology is able to scrape odds from different selected bookmakers and then offer the Sportsbook an average of the odds they have scraped. This in turn would mean what might be considered as excessive odds changes as whenever one of the ‘copied’ companies changes their odds then the average will change too. All of this can lead to the odds changing hundreds of times from when they are published until the start of the event.

Motivation of teams

Odds can change due to motivational factors. Other external results could mean that a team now needs to win to avoid relegation or reach a play off zone. It could be that the team can now no longer be promoted or relegated and the find themselves in the ‘safe zone and the manager wants to try out some youth team players to give them more top level experience. ‘It could be that a tennis player is having a great run in the singles event of a tournament and no longer wants to focus on the doubles tournament. There are countless possibilities here.

Injuries to key players

Should a key player get injured during a training session you could expect the teams odds to win the match drift (increase) as they would be less likely to win without that key player available to play. It could also negatively affect the morale of the team.

Weather

The weather can have a great impact on the odds of a game. For example you have a Europa league qualifying match where a team from southern Europe has to travel to a very cold country to play or vice versa. It could also be that heavy rain overnight could impact the following day’s play in a cricket match and the draw odds shorten. Again heavy rain could affect the chances of a horse winning a race as some horses prefer ‘heavy’ ground conditions.

Fan Trouble

It wouldn’t be the first time that team fans create an extremely hostile welcome for a travelling team. When Manchester City traveled to Liverpool for the quarter final of the Champions League, fans pelted the team bus with object and smashed windows on the bus – creating an uncomfortable atmosphere for a team can unsettle players.

Extraordinary circumstances

Stories such as buses breaking down on the way to matches or when Arsenal signed Kolo Toure and he two footed tackled Henry, Bergkamp and Arsene Wenger in his first training session spring to mind.

Asian/Pinnacle lines changing

When a betting line changes in Asia or by pinnacle, it doesn’t take long for European bookmakers to follow the line move. Bookmakers trust and respect these lines and move with them.

Money in Betfair

The liquidity in Betfair is also a key indicator on which way odds are likely to move. If there is more money waiting on the ‘Back’ side then the odds are more likely to shorten, whereas if there is more money on the ‘Lay’ side the likelihood is that the odds will drift. To find out more about the Betting Exchange have a read of our article here.